(Rubric “Point of view”)
An almost detective story with the appearance and disappearance of the text of the deputy head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev in the Vkontakte social network – in this publication, the former president mocked Georgia and Kazakhstan and threatened them with occupation (later the assistant of the ex-president of Russia explained this publication by breaking the page) – caused a whole a flurry of sarcastic comments. And about Medvedev’s possible alcoholism, and about the poor security system of the Russian social network, and about poor knowledge of history…
At one time, the famous one caused approximately the same reaction article Dmitry Medvedev about Ukraine. In Kyiv, even at the highest level of the former president called “downed pilot”claimed that he was just trying to “earn” himself Vladimir Putin – they say the same thing now. And this despite the fact that that article, in fact, laid out the plan of Russian intentions regarding Ukraine – now it is read precisely as a document, and not as a “desire to serve”.
It is necessary to understand that Medvedev’s disease is possible – even if the former president of Russia actually suffers in this way – has nothing to do with his journalistic activity. Medvedev, I think, does not write posts in social networks – at least long political texts. For this, he probably has a whole staff of assistants, just like any other Kremlin “heaven”. Moreover, such texts are certainly first discussed at the highest level with other leaders of Russia, first of all, apparently, with Vladimir Putin. And later they are published. And each text has its addressee.
Medvedev does not check anyone. He certainly signals the Russian political elite about the plans of the head of state
Medvedev often lately compared with Zhirinovsky. And in vain. Since the 90s, Zhirinovsky’s statements have been used by the Kremlin to test public sentiment. But now, it seems, Putin is not interested in these sentiments. Medvedev does not check anyone. He certainly signals the Russian political elite about the plans of the head of state. From the point of view of Kremlin politeness, such signals can only come from someone who was also the president of Russia. That is why, I think, what Medvedev says is much more important than what is declared Lavrov or Shoigu.
Unlike the article about Ukraine, the text about the future occupation of Georgia and Kazakhstan cannot be recognized by Medvedev as genuine. After all, Medvedev is the deputy chairman of the Security Council, a high-ranking official. And Kazakhstan is an ally of Russia, a member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Union. Why does the Kremlin have a big diplomatic scandal?
But the Russian military and regional elites have now been informed: after the military actions in Ukraine are completed (and possibly in parallel with the continuation of the war against Ukraine), efforts will be made to destabilize and occupy other former Soviet republics. First of all, Kazakhstan and Georgia. These are possible future targets of Russian attack.
You can, of course, not pay any attention to it. It is much easier for both the residents of Georgia and the residents of Kazakhstan to believe that this is just a “hacking” of the account of the former president of Russia. Or he was in too good a mood. Or in too bad.
Putin’s closest ally is not kidding. It is better to think about how to protect yourself from an almost unavoidable danger
Ukrainians, I remember, also tried to explain the statements of Russian politicians about Crimea and Sevastopol by drunkenness or a desire to please the head of state. Then they were also skeptical about Russia’s attack on Ukraine – even after 2014. The phrase “Then Putin will attack!” used when it was necessary to emphasize the political involvement or even stupidity of the opponent.
Now, a few months after the start of the great war, hardly anyone takes these words as a funny political joke. Citizens of Ukraine are not laughing at the moment. And I would advise the citizens of Georgia and Kazakhstan to laugh as little as possible at Medvedev’s threats. Putin’s closest ally is not kidding.
I think it is better to think about how to protect yourself from an almost inevitable danger.
Vitaly Portnikov – journalist and political commentator, columnist Radio Svoboda and Crimea. Realii
The opinions expressed in the “Point of view” section convey the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of Radio Liberty
Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine
On February 24, 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine on the ground and in the air along the entire length of the common border. The territory of Belarus was used for the invasion of Kyiv region with the intention of capturing the capital. In the south, the Russian army, in particular, occupied part of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and in the north – the regions of Sumy region and Chernihiv region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin calls the full-scale invasion a “special operation.” Initially, its goal was defined as “demilitarization and denazification”, later – “protection of Donbas”.
The Russian authorities say that the army does not attack civilian objects. At the same time, Russian aviation, missile forces, navy and artillery shell Ukrainian cities every day. Residential buildings and objects of civil infrastructure throughout the territory of Ukraine are subject to destruction.
By mid-July, Ukraine estimated Russia’s losses in the war at more than 38,000 personnel. The Kremlin does not release data on those killed during the invasion, but admits that the losses are “significant”. At the end of June, President Zelensky estimated the ratio of losses of Ukraine and Russia as one to five.
Having not overcome the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the surviving Russian units withdrew from the territory of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions in early April.
After the liberation of Kyiv region from Russian troops, facts of mass murders, torture and rape of civilians, including children, were discovered in the cities of Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel and villages of the region. Ukrainian authorities have declared that Russia is committing genocide. Western countries participate in confirming the facts of mass murders. The Russian Federation rejects accusations of war crimes, and calls the killings in Buch “a stage”.
Later, the facts of torture and murder of Ukrainian citizens began to be revealed in almost all settlements that were under Russian occupation.
As of 24:00 on July 31, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights was able to confirm 5,327 deaths and 7,257 injuries of civilians in Ukraine due to the full-scale war started by Russia. At the same time, the organization emphasizes that the real numbers are much higher.